The Whole Point

Taking a stab at treating cancer

With regards to both conversation and hypodermic needles I gather bluntness is a bad thing¹.

My chance of being given a needle tomorrow is higher than most people because having been alerted and alarmed my doctors are wisely collecting evidence of any further changes to my survivability, either for or against.

Feeling quite healthy at the time I first suspected my health was amiss the day my GP requested the dozen or so vials of blood pictured above. Needle number one led to others. A quick count tells me I have had 34 since the end of April.

Bayesian statistics tells us that in the absence of any data it is valid to assign a non zero prior probability to an event, and update the posterior probability as more data is collected². Fortunately my real world posterior is relatively unchanged, but my arms have taken some damage. I had no prior evidence other than incidental clinical results to think something was seriously wrong.

Based on the data collected a frequentist³ might now infer the probability is 23% of me having another needle tomorrow. Something similar for long term survival. But experience tells me these events are not statistically independent. It feels like one occurrence increases the chance of more in the future. My doctors are all very inquisitive and the test results are often surprising, especially to me.

So the last few weeks have seen an uptick in the number of needles I receive. There is at least one on infusion day, a small spike into the port on my chest which is reminiscent of Neo plugging into the Matrix. By the way, more of my pills are red than blue⁴. Then there are the periodic blood tests at the request of my oncologist or cardiologist. These currently occur every second day. Scans may require a catheter for the injection of contrast dye (at 350 psi no less, exceeding the rating of my portacath). On top of this my GP is now keen to give me regular B12 injections to try and compensate for the blood count deficiency caused by my chemotherapy. Better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick perhaps⁵.

Which brings me to the song for this week. Although originally written by Sonny Bono & Jack Nitzsche and recorded by Jackie DeShannon in 1963, it was a hit for several others including the Searchers (1964) and Smokie (1977)⁶. But my favourite cover versions include a live duet by Tom Petty and Stevie Nicks from 1981, and of course this great recording from 1978 by (renown wedding singers*) the Ramones. A song about the very real stabbing pain of jealousy⁷, and the sting of rejection. It is so infectious I dare you to listen just once.

1. https://ukmedi.co.uk/blogs/articles/an-insight-into-how-modern-hypodermic-needles-are-made

2. https://www.statlect.com/fundamentals-of-statistics/uninformative-prior

3. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequentist_inference

4. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_pill_and_blue_pill

5. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Polyphemus-Greek-mythology

6. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Needles_and_Pins_(song)

7. https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/envy-related-to-physical-pain-09-02-13